Method
How the numbers on this board are built
Every yield published here is an estimate. This page says exactly what is measured, what is assumed, and what is left out, so you can decide how much weight to give it.
How accurate is the rent model?
The model is re-tested on a holdout: it is rebuilt using only contracts signed before a cutoff date, and then asked to price leases signed after it, which it has never seen. Renewals are excluded from the test because they are rent-cap bound.
Tested against 609 leases signed in the last 62 days that the model had never seen: median error 7.5%, and 63% of estimates within 10%.
The rent comes from signed tenancy contracts
The rent behind a listing is not the rent someone is asking for on a portal. It is modelled from registered tenancy contracts signed in the same building, for the same bedroom type.
A contract cohort has to hold at least three contracts before it is used at all. Within a cohort, recent contracts weigh more than old ones, new lettings weigh more than renewals, because a renewal is bound by the rent cap and reflects a level agreed years ago. Implausibly cheap and implausibly expensive filings are removed before anything is averaged.
The cohort median is then adjusted for the size of the unit being priced, with the adjustment capped so a very small or very large unit cannot be extrapolated far past the evidence. In a small number of communities where the buildings are near identical, a building estimate is blended toward the community level when its own contract count is thin.
The service charge is an assumed rate, not a building figure
The yield after service charge subtracts an annual service charge. Unless a specific rate has been recorded for a building, that charge is an assumed flat rate per square foot applied across the board. It is a placeholder for a real cost, not a finding about a particular tower.
This is why the service charge is never the headline anywhere in this product, and never appears in a published post. Treat the gap between gross and after-service-charge yield as indicative only, and confirm the actual charge with the management company before acting.
What is and is not deducted
Every figure on this site assumes the owner self-manages the unit. No ongoing property management fee is modelled, because that cost is optional and many Dubai owners do not pay it.
Deducted from the rent:
- The building service charge, modelled at the community average AED/sqft unless a specific rate has been recorded for that tower. This is the Mollak service charge and it already includes the owners-association fee for managing the building itself.
Not deducted — model these yourself:
- Vacancy. Every void period between tenancies costs rent.
- Unit maintenance and repairs. The service charge covers the building's common areas, not what breaks inside your apartment.
- Agency fees. Ongoing property management is not modelled at all, because these figures assume you self-manage. A tenant-finding commission, if you use an agent to place a tenant, is paid once per new tenancy rather than every year.
- Any financing cost. Every figure here is an unlevered, cash-purchase yield.
If you pay for property management, or your unit sits empty longer than you allowed for, your actual return will be lower than the figure shown.
What the yield estimate excludes
The estimate is before DLD transfer fees, agency fees, trustee and NOC fees, mortgage costs, vacancy between tenants, property management fees, furnishing and maintenance. The total cost view in the app adds the purchase side fees where they are known.
It also assumes full occupancy for a year at the modelled rent. Real returns in any single year will be lower whenever a unit sits empty.
Rounding
Yields in published posts are shown to one decimal place and always rounded down, so any error sits in the reader's favour rather than flattering the number.
This is not advice
Nothing here is investment advice, a valuation, or an offer. It is a model built on public transaction data and listing data, and it can be wrong. Verify before you buy.